The "weather dependent" nature of wind and solar power has always been a core challenge faced by power grid dispatch. Unlike traditional thermal power, the output of new energy is affected by factors such as wind speed, light, and cloud cover, resulting in large fluctuations and difficult to accurately predict. In the past, power dispatching mainly relied on physical models and manual experience. When the prediction error was too large, it often resulted in wind and solar power curtailment or waste of reserve capacity.
The intervention of AI is changing this situation. A power prediction model based on deep learning can integrate multiple sources of information such as numerical weather forecasts, historical output data, and real-time meteorological observations. Through time series modeling, it captures the complex nonlinear relationship between output and meteorological factors, significantly improving the prediction accuracy of ultra short term (in the next few hours) and short term (in the next few days). The more accurate the prediction, the more confident the power grid dispatch will be: thermal power units can be started and stopped more reasonably, energy storage systems can be charged and discharged more accurately, and electricity market transactions can also obtain more reliable quotation basis.
In practical applications, AI power prediction has been deeply integrated with virtual power plants and energy storage scheduling. Some new energy stations have effectively reduced assessment bias and improved power generation revenue through a linkage strategy of "prediction+energy storage+trading". With the increase of extreme weather and the continuous rise of the proportion of new energy installed capacity, the value of power prediction will only become greater - it is essentially installing a pair of eyes that can see wind and light on the power grid.
For ordinary users, more accurate predictions of new energy also mean more stable electricity prices and a greener power structure. AI will not stop the wind, but it can better arrange and utilize every gust of wind and every ray of sunshine.
This article is a comprehensive compilation of energy report information and industry media information publicly released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).